Investment Strategies that People Need to Take Advantage of

There are a number of investment strategies that the everyday person can easily take advantage of but many don’t.  They are super easy to implement and over the long hall can make a huge difference!  Let’s check them out:

Dollar Cost Averaging


This one is super simple.  Invest on a schedule.  The banks make it super simple to take advantage of by setting up automatic withdrawal.  Have the bank withdraw a predetermined amount off your paycheck and invest it in whatever stock, bond, fund, etc. you have invested in.

Why is this important?  Because you take advantage of dollar cost averaging.  The theory behind this one is simple.  Buy more when prices are low and less when prices are high.  This results in a solid investment plan that lowers your costs of ownership.

Say you buy $100 worth of a fund every 2 weeks.  Your first transaction is 2 units at a cost of $100.  2 weeks pass and your fund has increased $100/unit so you purchase 1 until.  Next 2 weeks you it has decreased to $25 per unit.  You purchase 4 units.  Two weeks after that the price has increased back to the original $50/unit and you decide to sell.  You sell your 7 units for a $50 profit.

In this case the price changed equally in magnitude and when you sell it is at the original purchase price.  Dollar cost averaging allowed you to earn a profit where intuitively you would have though you broke even.



Most funds have rebalancing built in.  Why?  Because it’s a good strategy.  However, buying funds that do this for you is expensive.  It’s really easy to do yourself so take advantage and save yourself a lot of money.

When you initially purchase your funds take note of the ideal asset mix you have selected.  Every 3 or 4 months rebalance.  All rebalancing is adjusting your asset mix back to your ideal ratio.

There are two main reasons to do this based on financial concepts.

The first has to do with your expected return and risk that goes along with that.  When you create your ideal asset mix, it all has to do with the risk and return you are comfortable with.  As different assets within your portfolio earn different returns, your asset percentages become different.  This changes the expected risk and return of your portfolio and gets away from your ideal portfolio.  Either you’ll be leaving potential return on the table or end up with a portfolio that is too risky based on your risk level.  Both are not good and one reason rebalancing is important!

The second plays off the first concept, taking it to an extreme.  Market crashes do happen.  They happen because assets become overvalued and return to what their true price is.  The key concept is that they are overvalued.  In rebalancing, you sell assets that increase a lot in value to return to your ideal percentage.  It reduces your exporsure to the asset price crashing by forcing you to sell.


How to make Money in Poker – Theory that will help your game

This post will be going over flush draw theory and how to play accordingly.  First things first, we have to do some math to understand everything fully.

First, let’s define what I mean by flush draw.  A flush draw is when there is the river or the turn and river to come, and you have four out of the 5 cards needed to make a flush.  The most powerful flush draw is going to be when you have both the turn and river to come, as you have two chances to hit, versus one if you only have the river left.


The most common situation is when you have two suited cards in your haFlushnd plus two more suited ones on the board.  Because of this and the fact that it becomes super situational if you have one in your hand and three on the board and therefore very difficult to talk general strategy, I am going to stick to the two and two scenario going forward.

The math on if you have a flush draw on the flop is as follows:

There are 13 cards of the same suit in a deck.  That means there are 9 remaining in the deck that will complete your flush draw.  After the flop, there are 47 remaining cards that are unknown to you.  That means the odds of the next card being one that completes your flush is 9/47.  If it doesn’t come on the turn then there is now one more known card to you.  The probability that it comes on the river is 9/46.  So we now know the probability of a card coming that completes your flop is ~19.1%, on the river ~19.6% and on either the flop or the river ~35.0%.

These percentages are really important going forward to determine whether chasing your flush card is worth it or not.


Generally speaking, you complete your flush draw just over a third of the time, if you have a four-card flush draw on the flop.  This means that if you get 3:1 pot odds (the amount of money you must call compared to what you can win) or better for it makes sense for you to call.  Well not always.  This all has to do with creating positive expected value.  If you create positive expected value then you will make money over the long hall and vice versa if negative.

So, if you can guarantee that there will be no betting on the turn then yes calling with 3:1 pot odds makes perfect sense.  Two common situations that this might arise in would be all ins or if you know it will be checked to you in position allowing you to check and end the betting.

But if you are in a situation where you will be facing another bet on the turn, then you need to get better than 3:1 pot odds.  Here is why.  If you miss on the turn, then the chances you hit on the river are just under 20%.  If you face a bet after the turn you now need 5:1 to be able to call.  Otherwise, you have negative expected value.  So most of the time if you do not hit on the turn you will fold, as most bets are larger than 5:1 pot odds.  If you don’t see the river then going back to your call on the flop, your percentage of hitting is under 20%, not 35%.  Your pot odds needed to be 5:1, not 3:1.

In conclusion, if you can guarantee that you will not face a bet on the turn, then you can call with 3:1 or better pot odds.  If you think you will face a bet, then you need 5:1 odds.



Gambling Strategies – Part 3 Free Bet

Wouldn’t it be great if you could win money with zero risk involved?  This post will go over how to make a bet that if you lose your bankroll is unchanged.  It uses similar concepts to the previous post “Gambling Strategies – Part 2 Arbitrage” to achieve this.

sports betting

What to look for

This part is exactly the same as what to look for in the arbitrage article. I’ll go over it again quickly but feel free to skip if you’re familiar with it.  Also if you want something more that explains it a little more than check out the previous post.  Essentially you are looking for two different sites that offer the same line at different prices that become profitable when you bet them.  An example would be if you bet Team A at +100 on one site and Team B at +101 on another.  You bet amounts that will result in a profit no matter the outcome.

How to make a free bet

So here is where it changes from before.  Instead of figure out the bet amounts to make the same profit regardless of the result, you bet whichever team you like best and bet an amount that will win you what you risked on the team you liked.  Using the above example, let’s say I liked team B and I think they will win.  If I bet $100 on team B to win $101 and $100 on team A to win $100, I win $1 if team B wins and break even if they do not.

When to use this over arbitrage

Obviously, this is just a riskier version of arbitrage.  You trade the higher upside of profits if one team wins for the guaranteed amount no matter win or lose.  So, it would stand to reason that it only makes sense to do it if you think you think they are going to win?  Well, you should have guessed from the leading question no is the answer.  Some of the time that is correct, like in the above example, the trade off is fair (assuming 50%-win probability).  However, you can get into situations, because of the odds relationship, that it does not make sense to forgo the guaranteed profit.  It would be something like this – would you rather have a free shot at $1000 with a roughly 50/50 chance or a guaranteed $1.  And the vice versa can hold true as well, it might make more sense to take the free bet even if you have no sense as to how the game will play out.  I recommend running the numbers on every scenario before betting.

Gambling Strategies – Part 2 Arbitrage 

Arbitrage is usually associated with finance.  Arbitragers are people that look for a riskless profit – something they can invest in, by exploiting market inefficacies, so that no matter the outcome they make a profit.  What few gamblers know is it exists in the gambling world as well.


What to look for

Find a situation where you can bet two different outcomes where the payout is greater than the loss for both outcomes.  Now unless the website (or however you make your bets) is dumb, you’re going to have to use two different sites.  But if you find that one site offers team A money line (ML) at +100 and another site offers team B ML at +101 then you have an arbitrage opportunity.  You can bet 100 on team A and 99.50 on team B and either way you will win $0.50.  Now, this may seem trivial, but if you can find a bigger spread and bet more than $199.5 you can start to scale it and make an amazing annualized return (even in that situation your annualized return is 91.5%).


How to figure out the bet amount

It’s simple – just figure out bet amounts so that you win the same no matter the outcome.  Don’t worry, you don’t have to do this through trial and error, I have a formula.  Once you have identified an opportunity, make a bet on team A.  In the above example $100 to win $100.  Next take the amount that you will receive if that bet is won, in this case, $200 ($100 winnings, $100 bet amount returned).  Then divide that sum by the decimal odds of team B, in this case, 2.01.  The number that you are left with is the amount that you bet on team B, $99.5.

Further Advice and Notes

  • I use this a lot for football. Not only can you look for ML opportunities to exploit, but you can do it with the spread as well
    • Note: If you bet a line that has a hook in it (.5) then you will win. If you be an even line or technically ML then you can push the bet.  You won’t lose any money but you won’t receive your profits
  • For football, a great way to quickly tell if there is a probably an opportunity is to look at the spreads
    • If the sites have different spreads then there is a good chance that there is an opportunity – Especially if the difference crosses over a key number. The most profitable one I have ever bet crossed over a key number
  • Because sites have limits on bet amounts you probably won’t make millions on this. But this is a great way to supplement your current betting and protect your bankroll
  • A way to further leverage exploited lines when you have bet the max is to use alternate lines. Just because you have bet the line 3 doesn’t mean that you can’t bet and win on 2.5, 3.5, ML, etc.

NFL Gambling Strategies – Part 1 Super Tease

Super teases are an intriguing option when you first look at them.  Getting 13 points on top of any spread seems impossible for anyone to lose.  Yet the gambling websites wouldn’t offer them if they didn’t make money on them and usually what ends up happening is you do 3 for 4 and lose because there was one blowout.

NFL Gambeling

I used to fall into the trap of the super tease where you get into the thinking of “well so and so won’t lose by x”.  The issue with this line of thinking is I wouldn’t have been comfortable betting the regular spread.  The thinking that you have to go by is finding value and then apply the super tease to that.  What that means is find a team where you think the spread or total is value, or that you would bet without the super tease, and apply the super tease (S.T.) to that.

The reason that this strategy is effective is you not only get the super tease points but whatever you think the spread or total is off by.  A quick example.  Say team A is -2.5 but you think it should be -3.5.  If you S.T. it to +10.5 then you are getting 14 points the true line.  On the flip side, you think that team B won’t lose by more than 15 (+15.5).  In that scenario, you are only getting 12 points what you think the true line is.  It’s all about value.  Bet team A and you’re getting value, bet team B and you are not.

How to Determine Value:

I’m going to explain my process for determining value.  It’s what worked for me (only lost one super tease last year), hopefully, it works for you too.  What I do is go through all the games and pick out any spread or total that I like.  From here I figure out what the S.T. line would be for each site that I use (sites have different lines and rules so you can find extra value just by checking a different site).  Then I check the DVOA of the teams (down to the run and pass splits) and try to get a sense at how the game will play out (DVOA is an advanced metric that measures efficiency – find it better than any other stat).  For example, if one team is 1st in offensive rush DVOA and another team is 32nd in defensive rush DVOA, then you can be fairly certain that the offense will have a lot of success running.  From here I can determine what I think the spread should be and you can find the most value by comparing the S.T. line to what you think the line should be.  The largest 4 (all 4 must be more than 13) will be your bet.

Some Notes:

I have a very good sense of how consistent a team is in their performance.  Generally, I try to avoid inconsistent teams as mathematically that lowers your chances of being successful.  If you don’t have a sense of this they have a variance metric as well.  The higher the variance the riskier.

Key numbers are very important as well.  I won’t go too much into it but just know that your value is increased when you cross over a key number.  For example, going from 1.5 to 2.5 is nowhere near as valuable as going from 2.5 to 3.5.

The more data there is to create the DVOA metrics the more reliable it is.  That means the longer the season goes, the more accurate the data will be and therefore the more confident you can be in your bets.

image: pixabay

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