Wouldn’t it be great if you could win money with zero risk involved? This post will go over how to make a bet that if you lose your bankroll is unchanged. It uses similar concepts to the previous post “Gambling Strategies – Part 2 Arbitrage” to achieve this.
What to look for
This part is exactly the same as what to look for in the arbitrage article. I’ll go over it again quickly but feel free to skip if you’re familiar with it. Also if you want something more that explains it a little more than check out the previous post. Essentially you are looking for two different sites that offer the same line at different prices that become profitable when you bet them. An example would be if you bet Team A at +100 on one site and Team B at +101 on another. You bet amounts that will result in a profit no matter the outcome.
How to make a free bet
So here is where it changes from before. Instead of figure out the bet amounts to make the same profit regardless of the result, you bet whichever team you like best and bet an amount that will win you what you risked on the team you liked. Using the above example, let’s say I liked team B and I think they will win. If I bet $100 on team B to win $101 and $100 on team A to win $100, I win $1 if team B wins and break even if they do not.
When to use this over arbitrage
Obviously, this is just a riskier version of arbitrage. You trade the higher upside of profits if one team wins for the guaranteed amount no matter win or lose. So, it would stand to reason that it only makes sense to do it if you think you think they are going to win? Well, you should have guessed from the leading question no is the answer. Some of the time that is correct, like in the above example, the trade off is fair (assuming 50%-win probability). However, you can get into situations, because of the odds relationship, that it does not make sense to forgo the guaranteed profit. It would be something like this – would you rather have a free shot at $1000 with a roughly 50/50 chance or a guaranteed $1. And the vice versa can hold true as well, it might make more sense to take the free bet even if you have no sense as to how the game will play out. I recommend running the numbers on every scenario before betting.