NFL Gambling Strategies – Part 1 Super Tease

Super teases are an intriguing option when you first look at them.  Getting 13 points on top of any spread seems impossible for anyone to lose.  Yet the gambling websites wouldn’t offer them if they didn’t make money on them and usually what ends up happening is you do 3 for 4 and lose because there was one blowout.

NFL Gambeling

I used to fall into the trap of the super tease where you get into the thinking of “well so and so won’t lose by x”.  The issue with this line of thinking is I wouldn’t have been comfortable betting the regular spread.  The thinking that you have to go by is finding value and then apply the super tease to that.  What that means is find a team where you think the spread or total is value, or that you would bet without the super tease, and apply the super tease (S.T.) to that.

The reason that this strategy is effective is you not only get the super tease points but whatever you think the spread or total is off by.  A quick example.  Say team A is -2.5 but you think it should be -3.5.  If you S.T. it to +10.5 then you are getting 14 points the true line.  On the flip side, you think that team B won’t lose by more than 15 (+15.5).  In that scenario, you are only getting 12 points what you think the true line is.  It’s all about value.  Bet team A and you’re getting value, bet team B and you are not.

How to Determine Value:

I’m going to explain my process for determining value.  It’s what worked for me (only lost one super tease last year), hopefully, it works for you too.  What I do is go through all the games and pick out any spread or total that I like.  From here I figure out what the S.T. line would be for each site that I use (sites have different lines and rules so you can find extra value just by checking a different site).  Then I check the DVOA of the teams (down to the run and pass splits) and try to get a sense at how the game will play out (DVOA is an advanced metric that measures efficiency – find it better than any other stat).  For example, if one team is 1st in offensive rush DVOA and another team is 32nd in defensive rush DVOA, then you can be fairly certain that the offense will have a lot of success running.  From here I can determine what I think the spread should be and you can find the most value by comparing the S.T. line to what you think the line should be.  The largest 4 (all 4 must be more than 13) will be your bet.

Some Notes:

I have a very good sense of how consistent a team is in their performance.  Generally, I try to avoid inconsistent teams as mathematically that lowers your chances of being successful.  If you don’t have a sense of this they have a variance metric as well.  The higher the variance the riskier.

Key numbers are very important as well.  I won’t go too much into it but just know that your value is increased when you cross over a key number.  For example, going from 1.5 to 2.5 is nowhere near as valuable as going from 2.5 to 3.5.

The more data there is to create the DVOA metrics the more reliable it is.  That means the longer the season goes, the more accurate the data will be and therefore the more confident you can be in your bets.

image: pixabay